Holiday travel trends 2025: Development of tourism demand in the German source market

Following three previous studies from the years 2000, 2004 and 2009, the fourth Reiseanalyse (RA) trend analysis has now been published. The new edition covers the time period up to the year 2025.

"The RA trend analysis describes the general development on the demand side of holiday tourism (the economically most significant segment of tourism) in Germany (one of the most important source markets in the world) from the early 1970s until the middle of the next decade (2025). To this end the analysis builds on data from tourism market research. The empirical basis is provided by the RA trend analysis of the Research Association for Holiday and Travel (Forschungsgemeinschaft Urlaub und Reisen e.V., FUR) with its more than 40 surveys since 1971, in which over 7,500 persons are interviewed every year. It goes without saying that we also take related framework factors and factors from the supply side of tourism into account.

Compared to the previous studies, the new RA publication „German Holiday Travel 2025“ is even more based on the data, without losing sight of the basic principle of “data based consideration”: The knowledge of methods, data and the tourism industry of the three authors Martin Lohmann, Dirk Schmücker and Ulf Sonntag provides the foundation – together with the time series of the RA data reaching back to the 1970s.

Praise

„The German travel market is an important source market for almost all European destinations. The German Travel Trends 2025 report is building on more than 40 years of experience of FUR in monitoring the consumer behavior of German travelers. It is certainly the most comprehensive and thoroughly prepared report I have seen for this important market. Travel industry managers and other tourism professionals will find this report of great value and as an indispensable source for marketing planning and development.“
Prof. Dr. Karl Wöber, MODUL Universität Wien

„A trend report based on 40 years of regular surveys with a high scientific standard – that is an incredibly valuable source for everyone seeking to look behind short term developments and fads! When planning for the future, the big challenge is to know what developments will be important and not ahead, and to estimate the size and speed of trends. The RA trend report presents a reliable source for back tracking of past development and gives interesting insights in a probable future. Warmly recommended for strategic planning and for all those interested in the German travel market .“
Johanna Danielsson, Kairos Futures, Stockholm

Contents

„German Holiday Travel 2025” builds on the previous development of the demand side in the German holiday travel market and analyses the probable future development until 2025.

The study is divided into five core chapters (holiday trends 1-5). In addition, four single market segments (holiday trips with children, beach holidays, health holidays and summer holiday in the Alps) are analysed in more detail. The chapter "Overview of the Holiday Travel Trends” provides an integrating perspective of the numerous aspects assessed in the previous chapters. For the quick reader, a summary has been prepended.

The outline:

  1. Foreword (by Guido Wiegand and Rolf Schrader)
  2. German Holiday Travel Trends 2025: Summary
  3. Introduction
  4. Framework Analysis
  5. Development of Supply in Tourism
  6. Holiday Trends 1: Motives and Attitudes
  7. Holiday Trends 2: Demand Volume
  8. Holiday Trends 3: Travel Preparation
  9. Holiday Trends 4: Holiday Destinations
  10. Holiday Trends 5: Holiday Travel Behaviour
  11. Trends in Individual Market Segments
  12. An Overview of the Holiday Travel Trends

Methods

"The trends – as development observed over a period of time – become visible in retrospect in the RA’s time series, and from today’s point of view it is possible to make out the likely future development. We focus on tangible, i.e. measurable, developments in a subject-centred data analysis and data-based trend search.

The RA is a particularly suitable data source for a trend analysis, as on the one hand it offers data series covering decades, and on the other it already provides direct questions regarding future behaviour and intended behaviour. Comparing this with corresponding data about the past (e.g. interest in and experience with forms of holiday) makes it possible to reveal realistic future tendencies. Differentiated analyses of long-term time series allow us to show interconnections that are extremely important for trend research, e.g. those between demographic developments and their impact on tourism."


“Generally speaking, this basic method (“data-based considerations” built on long time series and taking ambient data into account) is best suited for such a trend analysis. To be more specific, our methodical approach to most issues was to derive patterns, if possible, from past data and adjusting them with respect to the future based on the results of the general setting and supply."

Results

"The various trends in consumer behaviour do not impact the future of tourism separately but in their totality. In combination and on superficial examination, the travel behaviour of German tourists in 2025 will not be much different from that in 2013. Numerous factors ensure stability.

This is true as long as there is no fundamental change in the general conditions that are of crucial importance for tourism. Yet for now there are no reliable indications suggesting that such a change is going to occur.

This is precisely why tourism is a sunrise industry: because we can rely on the tourism demand in 2025. Germans will probably travel neither “much more” nor “much less”, and not “very differently” either. This constancy is good news, actually: it is possible to plan on this basis.”

However, the authors recognise growth areas in different sectors. For example, domestic tourism and long-haul travel both have potential for future growth. The future of beach holidays looks brighter than the future of health holidays and hotels are likely to gain additional market shares.

Publication data and ordering information

Martin Lohmann, Dirk Schmücker, Ulf Sonntag: German Holiday Travel 2025: Development of holiday travel demand in the German source market. (The Reiseanalyse trend analysis). Edited by Forschungsgemeinschaft Urlaub und Reisen e.V. Kiel, 2014, ISBN 978-3-9816839-1-2), EUR 590,00 plus VAT

German Holiday Travel 2025 - Order Form

The study has been available since November 2014. If you are interested in a presentation or workshop with one of the authors, please do not hesitate to contact us.


The study is also available in German (further information in German language):
Martin Lohmann, Dirk Schmücker, Ulf Sonntag: Urlaubsreisetrends 2025: Entwicklung der touristischen Nachfrage im Quellmarkt Deutschland (Die Reiseanalyse-Trendstudie). Herausgegeben von der Forschungsgemeinschaft Urlaub und Reisen. Kiel, 2014, ISBN 978-3-9816839-0-5, EUR 590,00 plus VAT

„German Holiday Travel 2025“ vs. “Reiseanalyse summary”

The RA summary is a shortened version of the annual study report. It includes selected results of the current “Reiseanalyse” and is published every year, usually in Spetember/October. The summary doesn’t use its own methods but rather reports the survey results carried out each January (RA face-to-face) and in May and November (RA online). The report includes some time lines, but is focussed on the freshest market data. It has about 108 pages, is available in German and English and costs EUR 290 plus VAT.


The trend analysis German Holiday Travel 2025” is a study on it's own, published roughly every five years and for the fourth time in 2014. It focuses on future development of holiday travel demand in Germany (this edition: until 2025) based on long time series data from RA. It is supplemented by an framework and supply side analysis. “German Holiday Travel 2025” employs its own specific methods, the RA data are used as an input for estimations on the future development, differentiated by demand segments. The study has about 160 pages. It is available in German and English and costs EUR 590 plus VAT.

Reiseanalyse Newsletter

Current information on the development of tourism demand and news from the Reiseanalyse can be received about four times a year by the Reiseanalyse Newsletter (in German). Are you interested? Then sign up here.

Martin Lohmann on customer value in tourism: happiness and well-being - "the real thing" (ITB Congress 2016, Marketing & Distribution Day): 

ITB Academy Webinar "The Germans on holiday - Trends from the study Reiseanalyse 2015"

Slides
To the webcast
 


Martin Lohmann on vacation trends in 2025 (ITB Congress 2015, Marketing & Distribution Day):